The 100-customer market-pull test

Why this matters

Founders fool themselves with polite enthusiasm. People will call your idea “interesting” all day and never buy it. This test cuts through that noise by forcing a proxy for real commitment.

The test

1. Find at least 100 potential customers who genuinely represent your target audience, not friends and not people who will just be nice to you.
2. Ask each how likely they are, on a scale of 1 to 10, to put down a cash deposit for your product.
3. Count only the 9s and 10s. In our experience these are the only scores that matter; 7s and 8s almost never convert.
4. Multiply the share of 9s and 10s by your audience size. That's a rough read on how much of the market you actually appeal to, and therefore how big the idea is.
5. Now try to get those 9s and 10s to actually put a deposit down. If they will, you're onto something real.
6. Repeat for every idea you're weighing.

Run it honestly

The test only works if you don't rig it:

• Talk to representative buyers, not a friendly sample.
• Ask about a deposit or a purchase, not a vague “would you use this.” Willingness to pay is the signal; interest is noise.
• Don't lead the witness. Describe the product plainly and let them react.

When it doesn't apply cleanly

Some deeptech products have to be experienced to be believed, and some are years from a shippable version. If you can't get a deposit today, the equivalent signal is a signed LOI from a real buyer (covered in the LOI lesson). The logic is identical: make them put something at stake.